Extreme Shot Italia 2026: A 20% Hit Rate in the Final. Extreme Challenge or Too Much Left to Chance?

Thirty finalists, 240 shots and just 48 hits. That was the outcome of the Light Class final session at Extreme Shot Italia 2026. On average, only one shot in five found its target. Extreme shooting is supposed to be difficult, but these numbers raise a question: where does demanding competition end, and where does chance begin to play too large a role?

Eight Shots to Decide It All

The Polish team at Extreme Shot Italia 2026 included Jakub Sidorowicz, Kamil Zapalski and Darek Topyła. The Sicilian competition offered an opportunity to test their skills in conditions rarely encountered at most Polish shooting ranges.

In the final under review, each competitor had three shots at a target listed in the report at 1,800 metres and five at a target at 2,000 metres. Eight attempts. Not many when conditions change faster than a shooter can learn from the previous shot.

Of the thirty finalists, seven finished the session without a single hit. That is almost a quarter of the field. A field that had already earned its place through the earlier stages of the competition.

The Correction Was Made. The Next Shot Still Missed

The Polish account describes shooting conditions in which consistency was hard to find. The first bullet lands two and a half target heights below the gong. A correction follows. The next shot still lands two target heights low.

Conditions could change every few seconds. Anyone who caught ten or twelve seconds of relatively stable wind had a chance to use that window and make consecutive hits. Anyone caught by a change had to start looking for a solution again.

This is a participant’s observation, not a measurement that allows us to calculate how much luck influenced the result. It does, however, illustrate the central problem: information from the previous shot could lose its value before the next one was fired.

A “Fun Factor” of 20 Per Cent?

Hit rate is not, of course, a measure of enjoyment. For one shooter, a single hit at two kilometres might make the entire trip worthwhile. Another might leave the firing point after eight misses feeling that very little had been under their control.

And that is precisely the fun factor worth discussing: the satisfaction of taking part. Is the difficulty still enjoyable when four out of every five shots fired by the entire field of finalists miss? Does the shooter feel they are solving a demanding problem, or simply waiting for a moment when the weather allows them to connect?

The point is not that everyone should hit everything. It is about being able to identify an error, correct it and see the effect.

Yet the Best Shooters Did Make Hits

The average alone does not tell the whole story. Jonas Hoeller finished the session with five hits from eight shots, a hit rate of 62.5%. Josef Domin achieved 50%, and David Marcore’ 37.5%. These were the three highest-scoring performances in the final session itself, not the overall standings for the competition.

Their combined hit rate was 50%. That is an important argument against the simplistic claim that the final was nothing more than a lottery.

At the same time, the results table alone cannot tell us how much of their advantage came from skill and how much from more favourable conditions during their particular turns. A 20% hit rate does not prove that the results were random. It does, however, give us a reason to ask about the role of chance.

Extremely Difficult, but to What End?

It is worth discussing more attempts, spreading the competition across several strings of fire, or choosing appropriate target sizes. Each option comes with an organisational cost. None will eliminate the wind. They may, however, help reduce the influence of a single exceptionally favourable or unlucky moment.

Extreme Shot Italia has an extreme challenge built into its name, and nobody should expect easy shooting. But even an extreme final should leave competitors feeling that they had a meaningful influence on their results.

Do competitions like this make sense to you when the finalists’ average hit rate is 20%? Is it still a satisfying test of skill, or does too much depend on who happens to get a window in the wind?

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